Abstract
People systematically underestimate task duration and overestimate positive outcomes in both work and personal projects — the planning fallacy generalizes across domains (Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, 1995).
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1995). It’s about time: Optimistic predictions in work and love. European Review of Social Psychology, 6(1), 1–32. DOI
Key findings
- Planning fallacy: — Forecasters anchor on ideal scenarios and neglect distributional base rates.
- Domain generality: — Over-optimistic timing appears in academic projects, chores, and romantic timelines alike.
Application
When a thesis student predicts two weeks to finish a chapter; actual time triples — Buehler et al — open this cite for the study behind the move.