Abstract

Doyle reviews mental models for system dynamics — people routinely misread stocks, flows, and delays, producing policy resistance and surprise.

Doyle, J. K., & Ford, D. N. (1998). System Dynamics Review, 14(1), 3–29. DOI

Key findings

  • Stocks and flows — Untrained thinkers confuse level and rate — classic system error.
  • Delay blindness — Feedback delayed → people misattribute cause.
  • Model mismatch — Interventions fail when mental model ≠ real structure.
  • Simulation training — Explicit models correct systematic misread in policy tasks.

Limits

Synthesis review — strong map for the field, not one fresh trial; use for orientation before primary studies.